Price path
Spike anchored at 17 April 2026 at 00:00 UTC with the latest seeded window.
6 points · UTC labels
Spike detail
KalshiSeeded demo state
US tariff action on China before May?
Ranked explanations, explicit uncertainty, related-market spillover, and an evidence summary that keeps external sources separate from internal runtime context.
Spike timestamp17 April 2026 at 00:00 UTC
Move+18.2pp
Current price58%
Evidence quality5/6 dated
VenueKalshi
Ranked explanations
10.79
Policy briefing leak pointed to an imminent tariff package.
Regulatory/Legal Analyst3 cited items1 supporting agents
The leak explains urgency, but the final scope of the package is still unclear.
Falsifier
A White House denial or a materially delayed timeline would cut against the leak thesis.
20.53
Supply-chain lobbying pressure brought forward the market’s expected action window.
Supply Chain Specialist2 cited items1 supporting agents
Lobbying explains momentum, not necessarily the exact trigger date.
Falsifier
If no new supply-chain filing or committee action appears, this explanation loses force.