Price path
Spike anchored at 11 May 2026 at 22:00 UTC with the latest seeded window.
5 points · UTC labels
Spike detail
PolymarketSeeded demo state
Fed emergency cut before June?
Ranked explanations, explicit uncertainty, related-market spillover, and an evidence summary that keeps external sources separate from internal runtime context.
Spike timestamp11 May 2026 at 22:00 UTC
Move−11.4pp
Current price23%
Evidence quality3/5 dated
VenuePolymarket
Ranked explanations
10.72
Hawkish inflation and labour data pushed emergency-cut odds lower.
Macro Analyst2 cited items1 supporting agents
If financial conditions tighten suddenly, emergency-cut pricing could re-expand quickly.
Falsifier
A meaningful stress signal in funding markets would undercut the hawkish-data interpretation.