Price path
Spike anchored at 23 April 2026 at 00:00 UTC with the latest seeded window.
5 points · UTC labels
Spike detail
KalshiSeeded demo state
Oil above $95 by month-end?
Ranked explanations, explicit uncertainty, related-market spillover, and an evidence summary that keeps external sources separate from internal runtime context.
Spike timestamp23 April 2026 at 00:00 UTC
Move+9.6pp
Current price41%
Evidence quality4/4 dated
VenueKalshi
Ranked explanations
10.69
Middle East risk premium widened but stopped short of a full supply-shock narrative.
Cross-Market Specialist2 cited items1 supporting agents
The move depends on whether the ceasefire headline sticks or reverses.
Falsifier
A stable ceasefire follow-through would remove much of the energy-specific upside case.