US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ranked explanations, explicit uncertainty, related-market spillover, and an evidence summary that keeps external sources separate from internal runtime context.

Open evidence trace Back to scanner

Spike timestamp8 April 2026 at 02:00 UTC

Move+95.0pp

Current price100%

Evidence quality5/6 dated

VenuePolymarket

Price path

Spike anchored at 8 April 2026 at 02:00 UTC with the latest seeded window.

8 points · UTC labels

Trace readiness

Evidence summary

External evidence5

Internal context1

Weak evidence1

Trust tiers4

Internal context stays visible but separate. The trace route carries the full provenance chain for each cited source.

Assessment

Mispricing read

fairly pricedConfidence 0.68

94%–99%

The move lines up with strong official evidence. The remaining uncertainty is implementation risk, not direction.

Spillover

Related markets

Oil above $95 by month-end?

+9.6pp

Kalshi41%8 April 2026 at 02:07 UTC

Risk-premium spillover into energy markets remained modest after the ceasefire headline.

Israel x Hezbollah truce by April 15?

+12.4pp

Polymarket62%8 April 2026 at 02:04 UTC

Neighbouring ceasefire markets repriced in the same direction within four minutes.

UN sanctions rollback before June?

+4.8pp

Kalshi34%8 April 2026 at 02:11 UTC

Second-order diplomatic markets moved less, suggesting traders distinguished headline relief from policy follow-through.

Ranked explanations

10.86

Formal ceasefire announcement

Geopolitical Analyst3 cited items2 supporting agents

Formal text is strong, but the market may still be pricing an implementation risk premium.

Falsifier

A rapid official denial or retraction from either side would break the announcement thesis.

20.81

Truce-collapse repricing narrative

Null Hypothesis2 cited items1 supporting agents

Some repricing may reflect dealers closing residual downside hedges rather than fresh conviction.

Falsifier

If related war-risk markets fail to follow through, this mechanism weakens materially.

30.34

Cross-market contagion / crowd overreaction

Devil's Advocate1 cited items1 supporting agents

The mechanical-flow thesis fits the speed of the move but explains less of the sustained closing level.

Falsifier

If official ceasefire language remains intact and related markets stay repriced, contagion is not enough on its own.