Reference document

Methodology

How Slowwire explains prediction-market probabilities, movement, liquidity, dates, source rules, and limitations.

Scope

What does Slowwire track?: Slowwire tracks prediction markets, implied probabilities, movement over time, source metadata, close dates, resolution dates, and resolution criteria.
What does Slowwire not do?: It does not operate markets, execute trades, recommend positions, guarantee market availability, or claim that market prices are correct.
How should a signal be read?: A signal means a market deserves inspection because probability movement, activity, liquidity, or timing changed. It is not advice.

What is implied probability?: Implied probability is the market price expressed as a percentage. A 58% Yes price means the market is pricing the Yes outcome at roughly 58%, before fees, spread, source rules, and liquidity limits.
What is probability movement?: Movement is the change in implied probability over a defined period, usually shown in percentage points. Colour is never the only signal; text labels show the direction and size.

What does volume show?: Volume shows reported market activity. High volume can make a move more informative, but it does not prove the move is right.
What does liquidity show?: Liquidity shows how much depth appears available around the market. Thin liquidity makes probabilities easier to move and harder to interpret.

What is the close date?: The close date is when the market is expected to stop accepting new activity or stop trading under the source's rules.
What is the resolution date?: The resolution date is when the source is expected to determine or publish the outcome. It can be later than the close date.
Why do criteria matter?: Resolution criteria define exactly what must happen for an outcome to resolve Yes, No, or another listed outcome. Similar headlines can resolve differently if criteria differ.

Market source: shownEach market lists the source or venue where available.
Status: shownOpen, closed, resolving, and resolved states are kept distinct.
Fallback data: labelledLocal fallback data is marked when live APIs are not available.
Gaps: visibleMissing source links, sparse liquidity, and unresolved timing remain visible.

Informational-use disclaimer: Slowwire provides prediction-market intelligence and analysis. It does not provide financial, legal, betting, or investment advice. Market availability, legality, and trading rules vary by jurisdiction.

Version log
Date	Version	Change
2026-05-04	prediction-markets-pivot.v1	Methodology repositioned around prediction markets, implied probability, liquidity, dates, criteria, and informational-use boundaries.